Why Aren’t Home Prices Crashing?

There have been a lot of shifts in the housing market recently. Mortgage rates rose dramatically last year, impacting many people’s ability to buy a home. And after several years of rapid price appreciation, home prices finally peaked last summer. These changes led to a rise in headlines saying prices would end up crashing.

Even though we’re no longer seeing the buyer frenzy that drove home values up during the pandemic, prices have been relatively flat at the national level. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), doesn’t expect that to change:

[H]ome prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

You might think sellers would have to lower prices to attract buyers in today’s market, and that’s part of why some may have been waiting for prices to come crashing down. But there’s another factor at play – low inventory. And according to Yun, that’s limiting just how low prices will go:

“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”

As you can see in the graph below, we’ve been at or near record-low inventory levels for a few years now.

That lack of available homes on the market is putting upward pressure on pricesBankrate puts it like this:

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

If more homes don’t come to the market, a lack of supply will keep prices from crashing, and, according to industry expert Rick Sharga, inventory isn’t likely to rise significantly this year:

“I believe that we’re likely to see low inventory continue to vex the housing market throughout 2023.”

Sellers are under no pressure to move since they have plenty of equity right now. That equity acts as a cushion for homeowners, lowering the chances of distressed sales like foreclosures and short sales. And with many homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, that equity cushion isn’t going anywhere soon.

With so few homes available for sale today, it’s important to work with a trusted real estate agent who understands your local area and can navigate the current market volatility.

Bottom Line

A lot of people expected prices would crash this year thanks to low buyer demand, but that isn’t happening. Why? There aren’t enough homes for sale. If you’re thinking about buying or selling this spring, contact us to begin planning your next move.

About the Author
Stephanie Miller, Living Local Nashville Realtor

Stephanie Miller is a Nashville native with an extensive background in the local real estate industry and is excited to use that experience to help you achieve your homeownership and investment goals! 

With family deeply rooted in the Nashville area since the early 1800’s and entrepreneurship ingrained in her by generations of small business owners, home builders, restauranteurs, and pioneers in their industries, it should come as no surprise that she truly loves her hometown and the opportunity to serve the residents of Middle Tennessee while continuing a tradition of entrepreneurship through a family business. 

She has over two decades of experience working for some of Nashville's top real estate teams, effectively marketing thousands of homes in every price point and creating systems to streamline the real estate process. She has gained invaluable knowledge and insight along the way and her favorite opportunity thus far is working alongside her dad, Ron Rice, combining their experience to serve all of their family, friends, and clients together. 

Stephanie lives in Wilson County with her husband Jason, two sons who are both very active in Scouts, and two rescue dogs. 

Service
2012 - 2013    McFarlin Pointe HOA Board Officer
2013 - 2017    Rutherford County Schools Outreach Volunteer
2015 - 2016    Nolensville Cub Scout Pack 297 Committee Member
2017 - 2021    Lebanon Cub Scout Pack 643 Committee Member
2022 - present    Scouts BSA Troop 2535 Committee Chair

Memberships & Certifications
National Association of REALTORS®
Tennessee REALTORS®
Greater Nashville REALTORS®
At Home with Diversity®