Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation

Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation

Experts in the real estate industry use a number of terms when they talk about what’s happening with home prices. And some of those words sound a bit similar but mean very different things. To help clarify what’s happening with home prices and where experts say they’re going, here’s a look at a few terms you may hear:

  • Appreciation is when home prices increase.
  • Depreciation is when home prices decrease.
  • Deceleration is when home prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower pace.

Where Home Prices Have Been in Recent Years

For starters, you’ve probably heard home prices have skyrocketed over the past two years, but homes were actually appreciating long before that. You might be surprised to learn that home prices have climbed for 122 consecutive months (see graph below):

Home Prices Have Appreciated Since 2012

As the graph shows, houses have gained value consistently over the past 10 consecutive years. But since 2020, the increase has been more dramatic as home price growth accelerated.

So why did home prices climb so much? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was high and supply was low.

Where Experts Say Home Prices Are Going

While this is helpful context, if you’re a buyer or seller in today’s market, you probably want to know what’s going to happen with home prices moving forward. Will they continue that same growth path or will home prices fall?

Experts are forecasting ongoing appreciation, just at a decelerated pace. In other words, prices will keep climbing, just not as fast as they have been. The graph below shows home price forecasts from seven industry leaders. None are calling for prices to fall (see graph below):

Home Price Forecasts for 2022

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, identifies a key reason why home prices won’t depreciate or drop:

In today’s housing market, demand for homes continues to outpace supply, which is keeping the pressure on house prices, so don’t expect house prices to decline.”

And although housing supply is starting to tick up, it’s not enough to make home prices decline because there’s still a gap between the number of homes available for sale and the volume of buyers looking to make a purchase.

Terry Loebs, Founder of the research firm Pulsenomics, notes that most real estate experts and economists anticipate home prices will continue rising. As he puts it:

“With home values at record-high levels and a vast majority of experts projecting additional price increases this year and beyond, home prices and expectations remain buoyant.”

Bottom Line

Experts forecast price deceleration, not depreciation. That means home prices will continue to rise, just at a slower pace. Let’s connect to get a full picture of what’s happening with home prices in your local market and to discuss your buying and selling goals.

About the Author
Stephanie Miller, Living Local Nashville Realtor

Stephanie Miller is a Nashville native with an extensive background in the local real estate industry and is excited to use that experience to help you achieve your homeownership and investment goals! 

With family deeply rooted in the Nashville area since the early 1800’s and entrepreneurship ingrained in her by generations of small business owners, home builders, restauranteurs, and pioneers in their industries, it should come as no surprise that she truly loves her hometown and the opportunity to serve the residents of Middle Tennessee while continuing a tradition of entrepreneurship through a family business. 

She has over two decades of experience working for some of Nashville's top real estate teams, effectively marketing thousands of homes in every price point and creating systems to streamline the real estate process. She has gained invaluable knowledge and insight along the way and her favorite opportunity thus far is working alongside her dad, Ron Rice, combining their experience to serve all of their family, friends, and clients together. 

Stephanie lives in Wilson County with her husband Jason, two sons who are both very active in Scouts, and two rescue dogs. 

Service
2012 - 2013    McFarlin Pointe HOA Board Officer
2013 - 2017    Rutherford County Schools Outreach Volunteer
2015 - 2016    Nolensville Cub Scout Pack 297 Committee Member
2017 - 2021    Lebanon Cub Scout Pack 643 Committee Member
2022 - present    Scouts BSA Troop 2535 Committee Chair

Memberships & Certifications
National Association of REALTORS®
Tennessee REALTORS®
Greater Nashville REALTORS®
At Home with Diversity®